In short
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have diminished holdings by about 24,000 BTC in This autumn 2025, reversing the buildup seen a 12 months earlier.
- Massive Bitcoin holders and derivatives markets confirmed weaker demand patterns just like these seen forward of previous downturns.
- Bitcoin fell under its 365-day transferring common, a degree CryptoQuant mentioned traditionally separated bull and bear markets.
Bitcoin demand weakened in current months as ETF holdings fell, giant buyers collected extra slowly, and derivatives indicators declined, in response to knowledge by CryptoQuant.
In a report launched Friday, the analytics agency mentioned Bitcoin demand fell under its long-term development in early October, a shift it mentioned traditionally signaled a bear market.
“Since 2023, Bitcoin has skilled three-spot demand waves, pushed by the U.S. spot ETF launch in January 2024, the Trump presidential election win, and the Bitcoin treasury corporations’ bubble,” the report mentioned. “Nevertheless, the demand progress entered a slowdown interval since early October and is now rising under development. As such, we consider most of this cycle’s demand progress has handed, with the corresponding bearish impact on value.”
The report comes as Bitcoin continues to commerce simply over the $88,000 mark, down 30% from its all-time excessive above $126,000 set in early October.
In accordance with CryptoQuant, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs grew to become web sellers in the course of the fourth quarter of 2025, with mixed holdings declining by about 24,000 BTC, or round $2.12 billion. The report contrasted that exercise with the fourth quarter of 2024, when ETF holdings rose sharply over the identical interval.
The report additionally confirmed weaker progress amongst addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. CryptoQuant mentioned this group—which incorporates ETFs and company treasury accounts—was rising under development.
“This cohort, which incorporates ETFs and treasury corporations, represented most of Bitcoin’s demand progress this cycle,” CryptoQuant wrote. “This weakening mirrors a requirement development shift on the finish of 2021, which preceded the 2022 Bitcoin bear market.”
Bitcoin’s value motion has additionally modified. The report mentioned Bitcoin crossed under its 365-day transferring common, a degree CryptoQuant described as a long-term technical threshold that traditionally separated bull and bear markets.
In previous cycles, the agency mentioned, downturns adopted intervals when demand progress peaked and declined. CryptoQuant pointed to Bitcoin’s realized value as a historic reference level for bear-market lows.
The agency sees a possible cycle low of $56,000 forward, which might characterize a 55% drop from the all-time excessive mark and an additional 36% slide from the present value of Bitcoin. Nevertheless, it sees "intermediate value help" across the $70,000 degree.
CryptoQuant's report comes following months of declines for Bitcoin and different high property, following a report $19 billion liquidation occasion in October. Some analysts have retained bullish views for Bitcoin going into 2026, even suggesting that the standard four-year value cycle must be thought-about a relic of the previous—although CryptoQuant and others proceed to challenge additional losses forward.
