Morning Minute is a every day publication written by Tyler Warner. The evaluation and opinions expressed are his personal and don’t essentially mirror these of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.
GM!
As we speak’s prime information:
- Crypto majors are inexperienced to start out week; BTC at $92k
- Monero (XMR) jumps one other 15% and hits new ATH at $680
- US Senate releases draft crypto market construction invoice, prohibits stablecoin curiosity
- Saylor buys $1.25B in Bitcoin, largest weekly buy since July
- Fogo and Soccer dot Enjoyable each to TGE this Thursday, Jan 15
🧭 Constancy Digital Property Releases 2026 Look Forward
One of many largest gamers in conventional finance simply printed a 26-page report on Bitcoin and digital belongings.
And their conclusion is that Bitcoin’s hurdles and headwinds are solely making it stronger.
📌 What Occurred
Constancy Digital Property launched its 2026 Look Forward report, taking a deep dive by way of a few of Bitcoin’s points and dropping a future outlook.
On the technical aspect, Constancy pushed again arduous on claims that Ordinals, inscriptions, or OP_RETURN growth are “breaking” Bitcoin.
On-chain information exhibits block house demand stayed low all through 2025, even after a number of waves of so-called “spam.”
Constancy argues that if demand does rise, increased charges are a wholesome final result, strengthening miner economics reasonably than harming usability.
The report additionally addressed inner governance tensions (Core vs. Knots), warning that makes an attempt to censor non-financial transactions by way of consensus modifications would undermine Bitcoin’s core properties: immutability, decentralization, and censorship resistance.
Wanting forward, Constancy highlighted quantum preparedness as a rising focus. Roughly 6.6M BTC may theoretically be in danger as a result of uncovered public keys, however builders are proactively exploring options like BIP-360, with the mantra “ready, not scared.”
On the macro entrance, Constancy outlined a bullish setup pushed by:
- QT ending and liquidity easing
- Fiscal dominance and rising debt burdens
- $7.5T sitting in cash market funds that might rotate into threat belongings
- Gold and Bitcoin’s historic relationship and the potential rotation in 2026
- A robust historic correlation between international M2 progress and Bitcoin
Institutionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum are more and more handled as core portfolio allocations, with spot Bitcoin ETPs holding $123B in AUM as of late 2025.
🧠 Why It Issues
Constancy’s outlook for 2026 boils right down to a battle between liquidity and macro threat.
The bull case is easy.
World liquidity is beginning to flip. Quantitative tightening seems to be ending, coverage is slowly loosening, and governments are clearly selecting progress over austerity as debt ranges balloon. With U.S. debt above $38 trillion and debt-to-GDP close to 125%, historical past suggests simpler cash is the trail of least resistance.
That issues for Bitcoin as a result of it has proven a good relationship with international liquidity, significantly M2 cash provide progress.
Constancy frames Bitcoin as a “liquidity sponge”—when extra capital enters the system, scarce belongings have a tendency to soak up it.
Add in $7.5T sitting in cash market funds that might rotate into threat belongings, plus continued institutional adoption by way of spot ETFs now holding over $123B in AUM, and the setup for growth is actual.
On-chain exercise, stablecoin utilization, and developer engagement all assist that case.
The bear case, nonetheless, is equally vital.
Inflation stays sticky, the greenback is powerful, and coverage, whereas easing, continues to be restrictive.
Geopolitical tensions, fiscal stress, and lingering market fragility from the October 2025 liquidation occasion proceed to weigh on sentiment.
If markets tip risk-off, Bitcoin’s deep liquidity cuts each methods: it may take up shocks, however it may additionally dump arduous alongside tech and different high-beta belongings.
Total, Constancy’s takeaway is that Bitcoin is maturing right into a macro asset, more and more formed by liquidity cycles, institutional flows, and international coverage choices.
And the long-term basis appears to be like stronger than ever, however the subsequent leg increased gained’t come with out volatility alongside the best way.
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
Just a few headlines that stood out:
- Crypto majors are inexperienced; BTC +1.5% at $92,000; ETH +1% at $3,130, SOL +2% at $142; XRP +1% to $2.06
- DASH (+60%), IP (+30%) and XMR (+13%) led prime movers; XMR hit one other new ATH at $680 (now $640)
- Gold and Silver hit new ATHs once more within the wake of the Powell investigation
- The US Senate launched the draft Crypto Market Readability Act, together with limits on stablecoin rewards
- Senator Warren pressed the SEC over inclusion of crypto in 401ks arguing they expose retirees to an excessive amount of threat
- Vitalik Buterin warned crypto wants higher decentralized stablecoins, citing governance seize and inflation dangers
- World Liberty Monetary launched a crypto lending platform constructed round its USD1 stablecoin, attracting ~$20M
- BitGo filed for a U.S. IPO concentrating on a ~$2B valuation as custody belongings surpassed $100B
- Tennessee regulators ordered Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com to halt sports activities prediction markets and refund customers, escalating a multi-state authorized struggle
In Company Treasuries / ETFs
- The BTC ETFs noticed $116M in internet inflows on Monday, breaking a 4-day outflow streak
- Technique spent $1.25B on Bitcoin (at a $91,500 common) in its largest weekly buy since July, lifting whole holdings above ~687,400 BTC
- Tom Lee’s BMNR added roughly $76M in ETH to its treasury, pushing whole holdings previous 4.16M ETH
In Memes / Onchain Movers
- Meme majors have been largely inexperienced; Doge +2%, Shiba +2%, PEPE +2%, TRUMP +2%, Bonk +1%, Pengu +2%, SPX +3%, WIF +3% and Fartcoin +4%
- PsyopAnime jumped 30x on the day to $16M ($26M at peak) after the account was adopted by Elon
- Different onchain movers included SOL (+30%), SPSC (+20%) and 67 (+20%)
- Eric Adams backed a proposed “NYC Token,” pitching it as a instrument to advertise civic values, then swiftly rugged the token by withdrawing liquidity (token fell from $500M+ to $130M)
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- Polymarket odds have been embedded throughout the Golden Globes broadcast on Sunday evening, precisely predicting 26/28 awards
- Soccer dot Enjoyable’s FUN token will TGE this Thursday, Jan 15
- Fogo introduced a $7M ICO at $350M valuation by way of Binance Pockets, with token itemizing coming Jan 15, together with welcoming Robotic Ventures as an investor
- Markets.xyz launched a perps platform for equities and crypto, beginning with a US500 index
- SHDW launched personal buying and selling of tokens on Solana “for Brokers and People”
🚚 What is occurring in NFTs?
- NFT leaders have been largely inexperienced on the day; Punks +1% at 29.2 ETH, Pudgy +7% at 5.15 ETH, and BAYC +5% at 5.65 ETH; Hypurr even 514 HYPE
- Infinex Patrons (+9%) and Doodles (+10%) led notable prime movers
- Good Vibes Membership 1/1s offered for 50 ETH and 20 ETH on Monday
